Simply Economics

U.S. Economic Slowdown: Tariffs and Policy Shifts Impact Growth

In today's episode, we delve into the U.S. economic slowdown as new tariffs and policy changes take effect. The OECD revises its GDP growth forecast, highlighting a concerning economic trajectory. We explore the factors contributing to this slowdown, including rising tariffs and inflation, and discuss the potential for stagflation. Join us as we analyze the resilience of certain regions and sectors, and consider the global implications of these economic challenges.Sources:https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-economic-outlook-slashed-oecd-trumps-tariffs-upend/story?id=122443152https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-us-economy-growth-oecd-forecasts-inflation-jobs-incomes-2025-6https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economic-growth-forecast-cut-sharply-oecd-due-higher-tariffshttps://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/june-4-2025https://www.investopedia.com/federal-reserve-the-economy-is-slowing-as-companies-can-t-figure-out-the-rules-of-this-tariff-game-11748450

OECD Warns of Rising Inflation Amid Trade Tensions

In today's episode, we delve into the OECD's latest report highlighting a resurgence of global inflationary pressures, particularly in the U.S., due to increased trade barriers. We explore the economic implications of these trends and discuss the OECD's recommendations for policymakers to prioritize reducing trade barriers to foster growth and stabilize prices. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pressing global economic challenges.Sources:https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en/full-report/general-assessment-of-the-macroeconomic-situation_3e68d1e3.htmlhttps://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/06/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_1fd979a8/83363382-en.pdfhttps://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/06/04/dcrn-j04.htmlhttps://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en/full-report/turkiye_2d44f583.htmlhttps://www.ainvest.com/news/oecd-slashes-growth-forecasts-tariff-turmoil-clouds-global-outlook-2506/https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/06/03/oecd-outlook-can-the-global-economy-survive-trade-pressures-in-2025https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oecd-us-economic-forecast-trump-tariffs-2025-2026/https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-june-2025-briefing-no-190/https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/economic-outlook-midyear-2025https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.html

Global Economic Outlook Dims Amid Trade Tensions, US Manufacturing Struggles

In today's episode, we delve into the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, highlighting a more cautious global growth forecast due to rising trade barriers. We also examine the ongoing contraction in the US manufacturing sector, with the latest PMI data indicating persistent challenges. Additionally, we explore the easing inflation trends in the US and their potential impact on Federal Reserve policies. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pressing economic issues.Sources:https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/media-advisories/2025/05/oecd-to-release-latest-economic-outlook-on-tuesday-3-june-2025.htmlhttps://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.htmlhttps://www.forexlive.com/news/oecd-cuts-global-outlook-as-trump-tariffs-bite-at-us-growth-20250603/https://www.oecd.org/en/about/newsroom.htmlhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooppJsAyI-Qhttps://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/ism-s-and-p-pmi-may-2025-trump-tariffs/749549/https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/02/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-may-2025?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coveragehttps://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/02/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-may-2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ed3c6f6ea79843648c9b8b98824d74f7https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmihttps://www.morningstar.com/economy/april-pce-report-pce-inflation-index-up-21-softer-than-expectedhttps://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-likely-steady-in-april-as-markets-price-federal-reserve-rate-cut-for-september-202505300600https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/april-2025-pce-inflationhttps://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2025https://www.metatradingclub.com/april-pce-price-index/

Global Economic Uncertainty: Rate Cuts and Employment Concerns

In today's episode, we delve into the complexities of the global economy as the U.S. faces employment challenges amid a declining PMI. We explore the European Central Bank's anticipated interest rate cut and its implications for the eurozone. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada grapples with mixed signals ahead of its rate decision. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pivotal economic developments and their potential impacts.Sources:https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-2-june-2025.htmlhttps://features.financialjuice.com/2025/05/30/week-ahead-economic-indicators-2nd-june-6th-june-us/https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202506011051/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-us-jobs-data-likely-ecb-rate-cut-in-focushttps://upstox.com/news/business-news/economy/manufacturing-pmi-falls-to-3-month-low-amid-softer-growth-in-output-orders/article-171181/https://www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-us-jobs-pmis-and-wage-data-could-challenge-feds-softlanding-hopes-200661527https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250602-ecb-expected-to-cut-rates-again-as-trump-trade-war-rumbles-onhttps://sofokleous10.gr/2025/06/01/ecb-possible-new-interest-rate-cut-on-thursday-expectation-of-further-reduction-in-inflation/https://think.ing.com/articles/ecb-to-cut-rates-by-25bp-next-week-with-questions-about-the-direction-of-travel/https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/265571/will-the-ecb-cut-interest-rates-again-on-june-5.aspxhttps://www.ainvest.com/news/ecb-cut-rates-25bp-eurozone-faces-trade-war-challenges-2506/https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-falls-to-near-13700-as-traders-expect-boc-to-keep-rates-steady-in-june-202506020439https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/265553/will-the-bank-of-canada-cut-interest-rates%C2%A0.aspxhttps://www.firstnational.ca/commercial/resources-insights/article/on-the-radar--will-the-bank-of-canada-cut-rates-on-june-4https://cdhowe.org/publication/mpcmay29/

US Investment Boom and Eurozone Challenges: A Global Economic Shift

Explore the dramatic surge in US foreign investment, with net inflows reaching $350 billion, and its implications for global markets. Delve into the eurozone's economic stagnation and the European Central Bank's anticipated rate cut. Plus, understand the weakening US dollar's impact on international trade and currency markets. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pivotal economic developments.Sources:https://www.ubs.com/us/en/assetmanagement/insights/market-updates/articles/2025-06-macro-monthly.htmlhttps://www.marctomarket.com/2025/05/june-2025-monthly.htmlhttps://afsa.org/advancing-us-economic-interests-overseas-era-rising-tariffshttps://www.nb.com/handlers/documents.ashx?id=8b8ad3e7-59aa-4a02-97e6-da5ece862508https://sundayguardianlive.com/business/fpi-inflows-peaked-in-may-2025-says-nsdhttps://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/emea/eurozone-economic-outlook.htmlhttps://www.euronews.com/business/2025/05/30/eurozone-disinflation-on-track-as-price-pressures-ease-in-germany-italy-and-spainhttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/updated-scenario-forecasts-Economic-Research-19-2025-5/19/2025,51187https://www.markets.com/news/week-ahead-ecb-interest-rate-decision-and-u-s-nfp-in-spotlight/https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/265519/eurozone-inflation-what-to-expect-from-mays-data.aspxhttps://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/forex-seasonality-june-2025-bullish-tailwinds-for-eurusd-audusd/https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/investment-outlook-midyear-2025https://www.marctomarket.com/2025/05/june-2025-monthly.htmlhttps://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/06/usdzar-monthly-forecast-01-june-2025/228995https://www.careedgeglobal.com/upload/RatingReportPDF/Shifting%20Tides%20in%20Currency%20Markets-%20CareEdge%20Report.pdf

ECB’s Rate Cut Dilemma and U.S.-China Trade Truce: A Fragile Balance

In today's episode, we delve into the European Central Bank's anticipated interest rate cut and its paradoxical effects on consumers. We also explore the temporary U.S.-China tariff agreement, its initial impacts, and the looming uncertainties. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these pivotal economic developments and their global implications.Sources:https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/05-28-2025-european-central-bank-expected-to-cut-interest-rates-amid-economic-trends-24856905319193https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250528~bd3c3b750a.en.htmlhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250528~c61ec4f10a.en.htmlhttps://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/ea376c40-7dad-4823-86c0-8fe3158fc621/https://time.com/7290011/trump-says-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-row/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-truth-social/https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/what-to-expect-from-us-china-trade-talks/https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/05/29/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-may-29-2025https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-claims-china-totally-violated-trade-agreement-us/story?id=122342782https://time.com/7290011/trump-says-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-row/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-china-violating-trade-agreement-tariffs-truth-social/

Court Blocks Trump’s Tariffs, Markets React Amid Economic Contraction

In today's episode, we delve into the U.S. Court of International Trade's decision to block President Trump's import tariffs, sparking a rally in global financial markets. We also explore the U.S. economy's contraction in the first quarter of 2025 and the Federal Reserve's concerns over stagflation risks. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these developments and their implications for trade policy and economic growth.Sources:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-blocked-illegal-court-international-trade-ieepa-whats-next/https://time.com/7289394/trump-tariffs-uscit-court-international-trade-ruling-appeal-reactions-explainer/https://abcnews.go.com/Business/stocks-climb-after-court-blocks-trumps-tariffs/story?id=122304566

Fed’s Balancing Act, Consumer Confidence Surge, and Oil Price Plunge

In today's episode, we delve into the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, revealing the central bank's struggle with economic uncertainties and policy trade-offs. We also explore the surprising rebound in U.S. consumer confidence, driven by improved economic outlooks and lower gas prices. Lastly, we examine the significant drop in crude oil prices, its causes, and the potential global economic impacts. Join us for these stories and more on Simply News Radio.Sources:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20250528a.htmhttps://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-reveal-details-of-hawkish-stance-amid-trumps-tariffs-202505281315https://www.investopedia.com/meeting-minutes-confirm-fed-really-is-stumped-about-the-economy-s-future-11743633https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-partially-rebounds-in-may-302465852.htmlhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-May-2025https://www.conference-board.org/podcasts/c-suite-perspectives/The-State-of-the-Economy-for-May-2025https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-consumer-confidence-rebounds-may-after-five-month-slidehttps://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/05/27/Conference-Board-Consumer-Index-American/4321748363216/https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/petrobras-reports-q1-2025-revenue-decline-amidst-lower-oil-priceshttps://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/gas-prices-hit-4-year-low-ahead-memorial-day-weekendhttps://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/oil-prices-fall-as-market-awaits-opec-meeting/49471https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/energy/2025/Will-Summer-Drivers-See-Lower-Gas-Prices.htmlhttps://www.ainvest.com/news/rig-count-collapse-energy-investors-act-floor-drops-2505/https://www.euromonitor.com/article/commodity-market-outlook-q2-2025-weaker-demand-outlook-amid-policy-uncertainty-to-cap-price-growthhttps://energynewsbeat.co/where-are-oil-prices-headed-in-2025-and-beyond-goldman-sachs-bearish-outlook-meets-rising-demand-well-economics-matters/https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/oil-price-prediction-forecast/https://energynews.pro/en/the-world-bank-anticipates-a-historic-drop-in-oil-prices-in-2025/https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2025/is-crude-oil-at-a-major-inflection-point.html

Global Economic Shifts: Canada’s GDP Concerns and Central Bank Moves

In today's episode, we delve into Canada's anticipated Q1 2025 GDP data, highlighting a potential economic slowdown. We also explore the strategic interest rate cuts by central banks in New Zealand and South Korea amid global trade uncertainties. Join us as we analyze these developments and their implications for the global economic landscape.Sources:https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2025/05/gdp-growth-first-quarter-2025-oecd.htmlhttps://www.rbc.com/en/thought-leadership/economics/forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview/https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-canada.htmlhttps://www.ainvest.com/news/canada-economic-outlook-persistent-negative-revisions-early-warning-signals-equity-debt-investors-2505/https://economics.bmo.com/media/filer_public/05/15/0515ab98-be30-43f4-9e08-961912893ec5/outlookcanada.pdfhttps://www.rbc.com/en/thought-leadership/economics/forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview/https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-26-may-2025.htmlhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-weekly/canada-weekly-markets-overreacting-rise-core-inflation-aprilhttps://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/weekly-economic-watch.pdfhttps://tradingeconomics.com/canada/producer-prices-changehttps://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/562314/rbnz-set-to-cut-official-cash-rate-by-25-basis-points-to-3-point-25-percenthttps://www.sharecafe.com.au/2025/05/27/rbnz-expected-to-cut-interest-rates/https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/rbnz-set-to-cut-again-but-forecasts-hold-the-key-for-nzd-direction/https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-expected-to-cut-its-cash-rate-by-25bp-this-week-preview-20250526/https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ocr-preview-another-cut-due-as-rbnz-watches-and-waits/N64ICP742JHB5HUPAO7YZ7HQZQ/https://english.news.cn/asiapacific/20250527/140d31986538449a804e8866129eb80c/c.htmlhttps://longportapp.com/en/news/241919670https://www.mk.co.kr/en/economy/11327065https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250525000651320https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250525001200320

Trump’s Tariff Turmoil: EU Trade Tensions and Market Reactions

In today's episode, we delve into President Trump's announcement of significant tariffs on EU imports, escalating trade tensions. We explore the potential impact on the global economy, with a focus on the U.S. market's reaction and the European Union's possible countermeasures. Join us as we unpack the complexities of these proposed tariffs and their implications for international trade.Sources:https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/05/23/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgfAMKPfjbA