Simply Economics

U.S. Economic Slowdown and New Tariff Tensions

In today's episode, we delve into the Congressional Budget Office's alarming projections of a long-term U.S. economic slowdown, driven by demographic shifts and rising public debt. We also explore the Trump administration's new tariffs targeting major trade partners, potentially escalating global trade tensions. Plus, we discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on interest rate cuts amid global uncertainties. Join us for these stories and more on Simply News.Sources:https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/highlights-of-cbos-march-2025-long-term-budget-outlook/https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/investment-outlook/2025-2q-outlook-the-economy-and-marketshttps://economictimes.com/nri/latest-updates/us-faces-population-decline-by-2033-record-high-debt-and-slower-growth-without-immigration-cbo-warns/articleshow/119625000.cmshttps://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/250325-economic-outlook-u-s-q2-2025-losing-steam-amid-shifting-policies-13450076https://www.pgpf.org/article/long-term-budget-outlook-leaves-no-room-for-costly-legislation/https://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-cbos-march-2025-long-term-budget-outlookhttps://www.marketplace.org/2025/03/27/what-can-the-latest-gdp-numbers-tell-us-about-where-the-economy-is-headed/https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61270https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61265https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60887https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61187https://economictimes.com/nri/latest-updates/us-faces-population-decline-by-2033-record-high-debt-and-slower-growth-without-immigration-cbo-warns/articleshow/119625000.cmshttps://www.ksby.com/us-news/without-immigration-us-suffers-population-decline-starting-in-2033-report-showshttps://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2025/03/27/CBO-Projects-Rising-Debt-Slower-Economic-Growthhttps://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-03-27/us-economic-growth-to-slow-in-the-next-30-years-fueled-by-debt-and-declining-birth-rates-cbo-sayshttps://northamericancommunityhub.com/us-census-bureau-zero-immigration/https://krcgtv.com/news/nation-world/cbo-us-economic-growth-to-slow-in-next-30-years-fueled-by-debt-declining-birth-rateshttps://www.businessreport.com/article/why-us-economic-growth-is-expected-to-slow-over-the-next-30-yearshttps://budget.house.gov/press-release/chairman-arrington-statement-on-cbo-long-term-budget-outlookhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-economy-slowdown-30-years-debt-declining-birthrate-cbo-report/https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61270https://thecensusproject.org/2025/03/25/2025-media/https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61187https://www.instagram.com/nytimes/p/DHeVipExK9q/?api=%E6%B5%8E%E5%AE%81%E5%85%96%E5%B7%9E%E5%8C%BA%E6%89%BE%E5%B0%8F%E5%A7%90%E4%B8%8A%E9%97%A8%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E9%A2%84%E5%AE%9A%EF%BC%88v%E4%BF%A11646224%E7%9C%9F%E5%AE%9E%E4%B8%8A%E9%97%A8%EF%BC%89-%E6%B5%8E%E5%AE%81%E5%85%96%E5%B7%9E%E5%8C%BA%E6%89%BE%E5%B0%8F%E5%A7%90%E5%AD%A6%E7%94%9F%E5%A6%B9%E8%BF%87%E5%A4%9C%E4%B8%8A%E9%97%A8%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1-%E6%B5%8E%E5%AE%81%E5%85%96%E5%B7%9E%E5%8C%BA%E6%89%BE%E5%B0%8F%E5%A7%90%E4%B8%8A%E9%97%A8%E6%8C%89%E6%91%A9%E5%85%A8%E5%A5%97%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1-%E6%B5%8E%E5%AE%81%E5%85%96%E5%B7%9E%E5%8C%BA%E6%89%BE%E5%B0%8F%E5%A7%90%E4%B8%8A%E9%97%A8%E6%8C%89%E6%91%A9%E5%85%A8%E5%A5%97%E8%BF%87%E5%A4%9C%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1-%E6%B5%8E%E5%AE%81%E5%85%96%E5%B7%9E%E5%8C%BA%E6%89%BE%E5%B0%8F%E5%A7%90%E5%AD%A6%E7%94%9F%E5%A6%B9%E4%B8%8A%E9%97%A8%E8%BF%87%E5%A4%9C%E5%85%A8%E5%A5%97%E7%89%B9%E6%AE%8A%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1.oisahttps://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/03/no-april-fools-joke-april-2-tariff-actions-are-expectedhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/story/investors-guide-to-april-tariffshttps://taxnews.ey.com/news/2025-0767-us-president-trump-announces-25-percent-additional-tariff-on-imported-automobiles-and-automobile-partshttps://abcnews.go.com/Business/tariffs-april-2-prices-economy/story?id=120126876https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/adjusting-imports-of-automobiles-and-autombile-parts-into-the-united-states/https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/03/27/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/https://www.womblebonddickinson.com/us/insights/alerts/trade-update-trump-administration-tariffshttps://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2025/03/lucis-rate-call-note-26-march-2025https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/poll-shows-expectations-are-for-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-to-stay-on-hold-next-week-20250328/https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/rba-watch/rbas-easing-cycle-will-be-shallowhttps://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/rba-could-hold-interest-rates-higher-for-longer-due-to-us-president-donald-trumps-tariff-policy/news-story/3902e86eb0d3663d6b1b869198cf28c7https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/do-not-see-it-happening-expert-reveals-interest-rates-prediction-ahead-of-rba-meeting/news-story/0287759d7e044b2f571a57f68015e116https://www.canstar.com.au/home-loans/rba-meeting-april-2025-predictions/https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/03/rba-readies-may-rate-cut/

U.S. Economy Faces Uncertain Future Amid Conflicting Growth Projections

In today's episode, we delve into the mixed signals surrounding the U.S. economic outlook for the first quarter of 2025. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model predicts a contraction, while other forecasts remain optimistic. We explore the factors contributing to this uncertainty, including policy concerns, consumer sentiment, and inflation. Join us as we analyze these developments and discuss key indicators to watch in the coming months.Sources:https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/250325-economic-outlook-u-s-q2-2025-losing-steam-amid-shifting-policies-13450076https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.htmlhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Mar-2025https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/gdpnow-or-nowcast/https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/03/oecd-warns-trade-fragmentation-slow-growth-other-international-trade-news-to-read-this-month/https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/feature/2025/03/26-gdpnowhttps://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-march-2025https://www.tradingview.com/news/macenews:b7e50b7aa094b:0-us-atlanta-fed-gdpnow-estimates-us-q1-gdp-growth-rate-at-1-8-unchanged-after-latest-economic-reports/https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/investment-economic-outlook-march-2025.htmlhttps://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/gdpnow-bouncing-near-zero

Consumer Confidence Plummets: Economic Concerns Rise

In today's episode, we delve into the alarming drop in US consumer confidence as the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index falls for the fourth consecutive month. With the Expectations Index hitting a twelve-year low, we explore the factors driving this decline, including market volatility, inflation concerns, and pessimistic future outlooks. Join us as we discuss the potential impacts on the broader economy and what economists and policymakers will be watching in the coming months.Sources:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-tumbled-again-in-march-302410584.htmlhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Mar-2025https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/ipsos-consumer-confidence-march-2025

Consumer Confidence Plummets Amid Policy Uncertainty

Explore the latest drop in U.S. consumer confidence as the University of Michigan's Index reveals a significant decline, driven by rising policy uncertainty and potential tariffs. Despite robust economic data, consumer sentiment is at its lowest since 2022, with political factors playing a key role. Join us as we delve into the implications of this paradoxical economic landscape and what it might mean for the future.Sources:https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/consumer-law/1600396/consumer-sentiment-nosedives-as-us-consumers-try-to-make-sense-of-economic-uncertainty-ankura-monthly-economic-indicators-march-2025https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/03/consumers-take-fright-at-us-policy-trajectory-and-other-key-economic-news-to-know/https://www.credaily.com/briefs/retail-rebounds-but-consumer-confidence-is-shakier-than-ever/https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/larry-adam/2025/03/21/weekly-investment-strategyhttps://www.nb.com/en/link?type=article&name=cio-weekly-perspectives-wait-and-worry-or-wait-and-seehttps://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/videos/fisher-investments-three-things-you-need-to-know-2025-3-24https://theshopmag.com/features/kpi-march-2025-consumer-trends/https://www.raymondjames.com/davidpitre/resources/2025/03/21/weekly-investment-strategyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXAMmpyGvp0https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-mar-2025https://www.lightboxre.com/insight/avoid-the-cre-fomo-the-5-leading-news-stories-of-the-week-of-march-17th-21st/https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/how-upcoming-consumer-confidence-data-could-influence-market-trends/https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025032469/will-the-stock-markets-relief-rally-continue-watch-for-tuesdays-consumer-confidence-data

Consumer Confidence Plummets Amid Economic Uncertainty

In today's episode, we delve into the sharp decline in U.S. consumer confidence, with insights from the University of Michigan's latest data. We explore the factors driving this downturn, including inflation fears and trade policy volatility. Additionally, we discuss the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates amidst these economic challenges and the global GDP growth projections for 2025. Join us as we unpack the implications of these developments on the broader economy and financial markets.Sources:https://members.asicentral.com/news/industry-news/march-2025/stat-spotlight-a-snapshot-of-the-economy-at-the-ides-of-march/https://thumbwind.com/2025/03/17/consumer-confidence-in-michigan/https://theshopmag.com/features/kpi-march-2025-consumer-trends/https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202503206620/us-leading-indicators-weak-as-consumer-sentiment-turns-sourhttps://michiganbusinessnetwork.com/icymi-pnc-senior-economist-jay-hawkins-consumer-sentiment-plunged-in-march/https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/2025/03/feed636537.htmlhttps://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/03/consumers-take-fright-at-us-policy-trajectory-and-other-key-economic-news-to-know/https://za.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250323178/will-the-stock-markets-relief-rally-continue-watch-for-tuesdays-consumer-confidence-datahttps://www.mdm.com/news/research/economic-trends/u-s-consumer-sentiment-plunges-to-lowest-mark-in-28-months/https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-707606-20250320https://www.nb.com/en/link?type=article&name=cio-weekly-perspectives-wait-and-worry-or-wait-and-seehttps://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/consumer-sentiment-hits-7-month-lowhttps://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/03/consumers-take-fright-at-us-policy-trajectory-and-other-key-economic-news-to-know/https://www.usfunds.com/resource/recession-warning-signs-are-flashing-red-as-consumer-confidence-collapses/https://cressetcapital.com/post/market-update-3-19-25-understanding-the-wealth-effect/https://www.cambridgetrust.com/insights/global-uncertainty-is-accelerating/https://simplyethical.com/blog/why-is-the-us-market-falling-in-early-2025/https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/where-next-for-the-u-s-economy/https://www.ctol.digital/news/markets-economic-data-policy-outlook-2025/https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-march-2025https://www.thestreet.com/economy/economic-week-ahead-reports-will-signal-if-slowdown-is-a-real-threathttps://www.bty.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-rates-firm-amidst-trade-volatility/https://fortune.com/2025/03/23/us-economy-outlook-emerging-market-debt-trump-tariffs-doge-musk/https://www.conference-board.org/podcasts/c-suite-perspectives/How-Badly-Will-Uncertainty-Hurt-US-GDP-Growth-in-2025https://www.raymondjames.com/platt/resources/2025/03/21/weekly-economic-commentaryhttps://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250323178/will-the-stock-markets-relief-rally-continue-watch-for-tuesdays-consumer-confidence-datahttps://www.qnb.com/sites/qnb/qnbglobal/en/eneconomics23mar2025newshttps://www.fool.com.au/2025/03/24/goldman-sachs-revises-sp500-forecast-for-2025/https://www.qnb.com/sites/qnb/qnbglobal/document/en/enEconomics23Mar2025https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-asia/insights/unravelling-the-uncertainties-facing-stock-marketshttps://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/3/fed-to-update-economic-projections-hold-rates-steady-as-uncertainty-soars-88041960https://www.cambridgetrust.com/insights/global-uncertainty-is-accelerating/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-down-trump-tariffs-trade-wars/https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2025031811695/fitch-lowers-world-growth-forecast-amid-tariffs-chaoshttps://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/publicaciones/global-the-economic-impact-of-trumps-tariffs/https://www.cambridgetrust.com/insights/global-uncertainty-is-accelerating/https://www.investopedia.com/why-uncertainty-corrodes-the-economy-11698581https://www.oldnational.com/resources/insights/how-will-trade-tariffs-impact-the-us-economy/https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2025/03/global-economic-outlook-uncertain-as-growth-slows-inflationary-pressures-persist-and-trade-policies-cloud-outlook.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-prices-long-term-effects/https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/global-economic-outlook-march-2025https://economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/us-trade-tariffs-and-its-impact-on-global-commodities/articleshow/119368109.cmshttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-forecasts-cut-sharply-as-us-starts-global-trade-war-18-03-2025https://www.nahb.org/blog/2025/03/eoe-summary-cost-tariff-uncertaintyhttps://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/trumps-policies-main-question-mark-surrounding-global-economichttps://www.conference-board.org/podcasts/c-suite-perspectives/How-Badly-Will-Uncertainty-Hurt-US-GDP-Growth-in-2025https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250321https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htmhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319b.htmhttps://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-march-2025https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/fed-meeting-preview--what-to-expect-from-the-march-2025-fomc-dec-250317https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20250319.htmhttps://fortune.com/2025/03/23/cathie-wood-rolling-recession-fed-rate-cuts-lower-taxes-economy-outlook/https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/how-many-rate-cuts-does-market-expect-yearhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/the-fed-meetinghttps://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/investment-outlook/fed-updatehttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250321https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/weekly-market-navigator--24-mar-20251-250324https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiHy5if2NLshttps://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/investment-economic-outlook-march-2025.htmlhttps://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-march-2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htmhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada_and_Mexicohttps://www.grantthornton.com/insights/articles/tax/2025/new-tariff-paradigm-how-businesses-can-respondhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319b.htmhttps://www.mwe.com/insights/new-tariff-developments-china-canada-and-mexico/https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-set-make-interest-rate-decision-outbreak-trade/story?id=119905993https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://dimerco.com/key-trade-policy-changes-tariffs-2025/https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/where-next-for-the-u-s-economy/https://fortune.com/2025/03/19/fed-interest-rates-march-2025/https://fortune.com/2025/03/22/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-flexibility-china-stock-market-canada-mexico/https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20250319.htmhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiHy5if2NLshttps://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-march-2025

Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty; OECD Warns of Global Growth Slowdown

In today's episode, we delve into the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its interest rate policy and its revised economic projections for 2025. We also explore the OECD's latest global economic outlook, highlighting a slowdown in GDP growth and the impact of trade tensions. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these key economic developments and their implications for the future.Sources:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/fed-meeting-preview--what-to-expect-from-the-march-2025-fomc-dec-250317https://www.peopleswealthmgmt.com/resources/2025/03/19/interest-rate-cuts-remain-likely-in-2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319b.htmhttps://economics.td.com/us-fomc-statementhttps://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/21/interest-rate-cuts-remain-2025https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/fomc-meetinghttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20250319.htmhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250321https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yo6dU3YUyZghttps://www.raymondjames.com/baycity-branch/commentary-and-insights/2025/03/19/interest-rate-cuts-remain-likely-in-2025https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/03/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-march-2025/https://www.chinadailyasia.com/article/607167https://programbusiness.com/news/key-highlights-from-the-oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025/https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2025031701031/https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/03/17/oecd-trims-eurozone-growth-outlook-as-global-trade-tensions-bitehttps://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.htmlhttps://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mexico-economy-oecd/https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-twenty-four/oecd-economic-outlook-march-2025/https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2025/03/global-economic-outlook-uncertain-as-growth-slows-inflationary-pressures-persist-and-trade-policies-cloud-outlook.htmlhttps://primarynewssource.org/sourcedocument/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025/https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/global-debt-report-2025_8ee42b13-en.htmlhttps://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en/support-materials.htmlhttps://www.oecd.org/en/blogs/2025/03/water-management-the-cornerstone-of-sustainable-economic-growth-in-asia.htmlhttps://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/OECD-IEO-03-2025/IEO-PPT-EN-march-2025.pdfhttps://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2113316https://sofiaglobe.com/2025/03/17/oecd-higher-and-broader-increases-in-trade-barriers-would-hit-growth-around-the-world-add-to-inflation/https://www.investopedia.com/why-uncertainty-corrodes-the-economy-11698581https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/oecd-ups-turkiye-lowers-global-outlook-over-tariffs-uncertaintyhttps://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2025/03/global-economic-outlook-uncertain-as-growth-slows-inflationary-pressures-persist-and-trade-policies-cloud-outlook.htmlhttps://www.eurofinance.com/news/from-tariffs-to-rate-cuts-eurozones-challenges-and-opportunities-in-2025/https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2025/03/18/oecd-cuts-growth-outlook-cites-trade-tariffs/https://www.semafor.com/article/03/17/2025/oecd-lowers-global-growth-prospects-citing-geopolitical-uncertainty-and-inflationhttps://www.statista.com/chart/34135/gdp-effect-of-additional-tariffs/https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/03/17/France-OECD-issues-global-growth-warning/5301742212377/https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/03/17/oecd-trims-eurozone-growth-outlook-as-global-trade-tensions-bitehttps://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/03/17/oecd-lowers-its-global-growth-projections-citing-trade-barriers-and-uncertainty_6739238_4.htmlhttps://www.investopedia.com/oecd-cuts-us-global-economic-outlooks-on-higher-trade-barriers-11698054https://gmk.center/en/news/trade-restrictions-threaten-global-economic-growth-oecd/https://programbusiness.com/news/key-highlights-from-the-oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025/https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/OECD-IEO-03-2025/IEO-PPT-EN-march-2025.pdf

Fed’s GDP Forecast Cut, Trade Tensions Roil Markets, Germany’s Bold Fiscal Move

In today's episode, we delve into the Federal Reserve's revised GDP forecast for 2025 amid economic uncertainties, explore the market turmoil caused by retaliatory tariffs from China, Mexico, and Canada, and discuss Germany's unprecedented €500 billion infrastructure investment fund aimed at modernizing its economy and addressing climate goals. Join us for an in-depth analysis of these significant economic developments and their potential global impacts.Sources:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htmhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/fomc-federal-reserve-interest-rate/https://www.costar.com/article/339577696/fed-holds-interest-rates-steady-lowers-economic-growth-projection-for-2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250321https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-set-to-keep-interest-rate-unchanged-amid-us-recession-fears-and-trump-tariff-concerns-202503191000https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319b.htmhttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/03/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-march-2025/https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htmhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/03/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-march-2025/https://www.morningstar.com/economy/tariffs-mean-feds-next-steps-are-anyones-guesshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250321https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/bie?item=52cf5b2e-fce9-44fb-9c03-7a129accb186https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://www.raymondjames.com/jp/resources/2025/03/21/weekly-investment-strategyhttps://www.fb.org/market-intel/tallying-up-the-latest-retaliatory-tariffshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6ay36PCeW8https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada_and_Mexicohttps://www.grantthornton.com/insights/articles/tax/2025/new-tariff-paradigm-how-businesses-can-respondhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/trumps-tariffs-to-impact-us-evoh-prices-in-march-2025-35369https://www.3eco.com/article/trumps-tariff-announcement-triggers-global-trade-war-markets-stumble-2/https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/03/20/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/https://fortune.com/2025/03/22/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-flexibility-china-stock-market-canada-mexico/https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/eu-delays-imposing-first-round-retaliatory-tariffs-against-us-until-mid-aprilhttps://www.wpr.org/news/retaliatory-tariffs-target-wisconsin-top-industrieshttps://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-parliament-adopts-reform-allow-eu500-bln-new-debt-infrastructure-and-climatehttps://www.goodwinlaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/03/insights-otherindustries-pif-germany-creates-improved-frameworkhttps://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/18/germanys-parliament-passes-historic-package-boosting-defence-spendinghttps://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/qa-germanys-eu500-bln-infrastructure-fund-whats-it-climate-and-energyhttps://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germanys-upper-house-approves-massive-defense-infrastructure-funding/3516292https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/03/18/german-lawmakers-approve-defense-and-infrastructure-spending-plans_6739287_4.htmlhttps://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/investment-economic-outlook-march-2025.html

US Consumer Confidence Dips as Fed Holds Steady on Rates

In today's episode, we explore the sharp decline in US consumer confidence amid rising inflation expectations and policy uncertainty. We also delve into the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its implications for the economy. Join us as we discuss the potential impact on consumer spending and economic growth, and analyze the Fed's cautious approach in a volatile economic landscape.Sources:https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/march-2025-lsegipsos-primary-consumer-sentiment-indexhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/consumer-sentiment-confidence-report-march-2025-tariffs-inflation-trump/https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/14/consumer-sentiment-sinks-to-lowest-level-since-2022https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-uom-consumer-sentiment-index-is-seen-declining-to-579-in-march-202503141404https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/reports/2025/03/consumer-confidence-continues-unsteady-start-to-2025-as-expectations-index-falls-sharply/https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/foodservice-retail/experts-see-worrisome-economic-indicators-in-the-u-shttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/14/consumer-sentiment-march-plunge-inflationhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-rapid-response/uni-michigan-consumer-sentiment-mar-2025https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2025/03/us-consumer-sentiment-dipshttps://www.peopleswealthmgmt.com/resources/2025/03/19/interest-rate-cuts-remain-likely-in-2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htmhttps://economics.td.com/us-fomc-statementhttps://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-march-2025https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decisionhttps://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/fomc-meetinghttps://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-set-make-interest-rate-decision-outbreak-trade/story?id=119905993https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-ratehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319b.htmhttps://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-march-2025https://www.raymondjames.com/gutowski/resources/2025/03/19/interest-rate-cuts-remain-likely-in-2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/fomc-statement-20250319.pdf?sc_lang=enhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20250319.htmhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yo6dU3YUyZghttps://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/federal-open-market-committee-meeting-minutes-transcripts-documents-677/meeting-march-18-19-2025-684019

Consumer Confidence Plummets as Global Economic Uncertainty Rises

In today's episode, we delve into the sharp decline in US consumer confidence, with a 27.1% drop from last year, and explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid economic uncertainty. We also examine the surge in global economic policy uncertainty driven by escalating trade tensions, and its impact on growth projections and financial markets. Join us as we discuss the implications for consumers, businesses, and policymakers navigating this complex economic landscape.Sources:https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/march-2025-lsegipsos-primary-consumer-sentiment-indexhttps://getfea.com/end-use/university-of-michigan-releases-preliminary-results-of-its-consumer-sentiment-index-for-marchhttps://thumbwind.com/2025/03/17/consumer-confidence-in-michigan/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/consumer-sentiment-confidence-report-march-2025-tariffs-inflation-trump/https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/reports/2025/03/consumer-confidence-continues-unsteady-start-to-2025-as-expectations-index-falls-sharply/https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/14/consumer-sentiment-sinks-to-lowest-level-since-2022https://www.axios.com/2025/03/14/consumer-sentiment-march-plunge-inflationhttps://www.retaildive.com/news/tariffs-trigger-plunge-consumer-sentiment-inflation-Trump-trade-Fed-Federal-Reserve-Powell/742733/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mObpNmIv0Wohttps://www.seafoodsource.com/news/foodservice-retail/experts-see-worrisome-economic-indicators-in-the-u-shttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a1.htmhttps://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-march-2025https://mp.morningstar.com/en-us/articles/blt49b55f54e3648c8b/fed-holds-rates-steady-cuts-2025-growth-projectionhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250319.pdfhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-economic-policy-uncertainty-1997-2025/https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/economic-policy-uncertainty-index-for-united-states-fed-data.htmlhttps://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/quarterly-bulletin-2025-1---unprecedented-rise-in-policy-uncertainty-due-to-shift-in-geoeconomic-relationshipshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htmhttps://www.csis.org/analysis/policy-volatility-beckons-disorderly-economic-transitionhttps://en.macromicro.me/charts/26279/us-epuhttps://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/global-economic-outlook-march-2025https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/OECD-IEO-03-2025/IEO-PPT-EN-march-2025.pdfhttps://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.htmlhttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-forecasts-cut-sharply-as-us-starts-global-trade-war-18-03-2025

U.S. Manufacturing Rebounds Amid Economic Uncertainty

The U.S. manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery after 26 months of contraction, with the Manufacturing PMI expanding for two consecutive months. However, challenges such as declining new orders and rising prices pose risks to sustained growth. Meanwhile, the OECD downgrades the U.S. GDP growth forecast, citing trade tensions and domestic challenges. Join us as we explore the implications of these developments on the economy and future outlook.Sources:https://trcelectronics.com/blogs/news/quarterly-update-q1-2025https://www.translogisticsinc.com/blog/inflation-data-and-u-s-manufacturing-sector-expands-for-a-second-monthhttps://riverreporter.com/stories/sba-announces-made-in-america-manufacturing-initiative,187884https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overviewhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMPhttps://sourceability.com/post/semiconductor-industry-news---march-2025https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/sba-launches-made-in-america-manufacturing-initiative/742623/https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdfhttps://www.marketplace.org/2025/03/17/a-federal-reserve-index-points-to-a-manufacturing-slowdown-in-new-york-and-possibly-elsewhere/https://www.geaerospace.com/news/press-releases/ge-aerospace-invest-nearly-1b-us-manufacturing-2025https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-twenty-four/oecd-economic-outlook-march-2025/https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-us-economy-may-grow-more-slowly-than-expectedhttps://readthejoe.com/economy/oecd-slashes-us-growth-forecast-to-2-2-as-trump-tariffs-take-toll/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbhKWlGg354https://primarynewssource.org/sourcedocument/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025/https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/41374-oecd-predicts-global-growth-slowdown-because-of-trump-trade-warshttps://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/03/17/France-OECD-issues-global-growth-warning/5301742212377/https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecasthttps://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.htmlhttps://investmacro.com/2025/03/the-oecd-downgraded-its-growth-expectations-for-the-g20-economies-oil-prices-rose-for-the-third-consecutive-session/https://fortune.com/2025/03/11/goldman-sachs-chief-economist-downgrades-entire-us-economy-trump-tariffs-markets/https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-forecasts-cut-sharply-as-us-starts-global-trade-war-18-03-2025https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-oecds-growth-downgrade-is-yet-another-headache-for-reeves/